Hope - Is it not a positive thing anymore?

All my life I have associated "Hope" to be a word that inspires positive thinking and feelings. Of-late I have started questioning it. Especially, when I listen to experts providing opinions on Marketplace (NPR), Yahoo! Finance etc. related to business, technology, economy and our future and the outcomes these statements are leading to.

So today, I went to my favorite dictionary "Wikipedia" to check the definition of "Hope". Here it is (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hope):

"Hope is a belief in a positive outcome related to events and circumstances in one's life. Hope is the feeling that what is wanted can be had or that events will turn out for the best. [1] To hope is to wish for something with the expectation of the wish being fulfilled, a key condition in unrequited love. [2] Hopefulness is somewhat different from optimism in that hope is an emotional state, whereas optimism is a conclusion reached through a deliberate thought pattern that leads to a positive attitude."

I read this over 10 times, and there was nothing negative about it. So why is my brain questioning the positivity of "Hope"?
Let's dive further...
Let’s analyze couple of common statements made which in my opinion were related to raising “Hope”, see what they mean and my take on those

1. “We are probably nearing a bottom”: This is statement that is supposed “Signal” the pain is almost over, however given where we are, the interpretation is: More Uncertainty, Market will go lower before it gets better. If the goal of this statement to provide hope to those in sidelines to get back in or for those who are in to not get out. --> It fails to achieve both.
   My Take: The reason experts like to make this statement, is that it does not commit them to one way or the other and hence the statement has no value. What we do not need is more uncertainty. Good or Bad, We need certainty. Hats off to folks like Warren Buffet, who took a definitive position, hopefully more of these experts do take a position than causing more uncertainty – Hopefully they realize “definitive opinions” is what they are paid to provide. Just as much as they believe bank executives have not done their job in the past, I believe these experts are not doing it today and that their opinions are worthless and more importantly by adding uncertainty they are causing more damage to economy than what the bank executives caused .
2. “Job loss was dismal (651,000 - Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) but not as catastrophic as expected”: This statement is supposed to positive and provide hope that things look better than anticipated. However every imagery that surrounded the jobs reports was a Negative – A person with extra-ordinary needs loses a job, A factory shutting down, Companies Laying Off etc.
   My Take: This imagery destroys the positivity of any hope created by better than expected performance as our brain can easily remember and retrieve the image of person losing job or being laid off than the fact the numbers were better than expected. If the proven “Availability Heuristic” teaches us something, the imagery should have been of a person who actually found a job against all odds, inspiring us all to believe in Hope. Believe it or not, I was talking to colleague, whose son took up a sales job based where remuneration is 100% commission based. Hats off to him accept that job rather become 651,001. These are extra-ordinary circumstances we need stories which embody – “When the going gets tough, the tough get going”.

I am sure I can go-on with more examples but these two should provide view into my drift. So where did I Start “Hope – is it not a positive thing anymore?”

My Conclusion: There is nothing wrong with Hope. Hope is still all about “Positive Outcomes” and “Optimism”. However, In Hope in GOOD TIMES combined with uncertainty and availability of good imagery that is easily accessible lead to “Irrational Exuberance” whereas in BAD TIMES the same hope, combined with uncertainty and availability of bad imagery that is easily accessible leads to “Irrational Pessimism” and staying on sidelines in the hope of an even better opportunity. I guess this is what John Maynard Keynes referred to as “Animal Spirits” of Business People.

Thank you for taking the time to read.

Nagesh

Note: The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.