Do Enterprises need any Hardware other than EDGE/End User Devices?

Recently, I posted on article titled "IT Hardware - Who is the future buyer?",

Today, I ran into this announcement from VMWARE: VMware to Manage Virtual Machines from Mobile Phones.

Though this announcement is from a specific supplier of virutualization technology, I am pretty confident this is trend in the industry.

If you carefully read and analyze the under pinning of the message, which is :- "we can reliably manage Virtual Assets from Edge/ End User Devices and virtual assets can be consumed on demand" - then we will truly have commodotized the Physical Hardware by being able to seamlessly move our virtual assets at WILL to the best value provider of physical assets dynamically ==> My Take: This announcement substantiates my assertation in the previous post in the long run !

Thanks
Nagesh
The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.

Economic Crisis - Have we even defined the problem right?

My Basic Education was in Mechanical / Industrial Engineering with some focus in Operations Research. I still remember the first thing my Professor said way back. 95% of the solving the problem is about "Defining the problem right" remaining 5% is about "applying the right algorithm".

Off late, as I have been questioning whether we have even defined the problem right?

Looks like the root cause economic problem is defined as "Lack of Lending" or "Lack of Credit Flowing"?

So the solutions to the problem range from Re-capitalization to Closing Banks. The current govt solutions are trying to meet in the middle with plans like public-private partnership etc etc as noted in Prof. Brandl's Blog today - http://blogs.mccombs.utexas.edu/brandl/2009/03/25/geithner/

So I took the liberty to comment on the blog entry, the essence of which is as follows

1. If we truly believe there are good well run banks in the mix - then why are they not lending and why are we focussing on the so called large insolvent banks? With interest rates close to 0% the good ones should be able to borrow and lend infinetly? ( Net - Net - It should really not matter if the insolvent ones do not !)
2. Lend to whom ? The american consumer is so much in debt. When was the last time any bank lent to the person who has maxed out his borrowing capability or does not have a job? Would you, if you were running a bank lend to a consumer profile who is already saddled with debt he cannot pay?
3. Assuming, we are successful in re-capitalizing the banks. The banks will naturally try to find the most credit worthy and profitable consumer profile to lend to. Are we really sure that, THAT consumer profile is really the American Consumer ? If not, Question who this consumer is and will money start flowing to that consumer?

As I think thru this subject, I really, would like some economists to illustrate which credit worthy institution / individual is not able to borrow ? and if there is such an example, I would like to further understand why the so called well run banks are not lending to them ? That may shed light on what the real problem is?

So what is My Take: My Gut tells me that the real problem, America now faces is not availability of credit, it is credit worthiness of American Consumer. So the solutions should make American Consumer Strong and Credit Worthy Again.

In the short run this may be best acheived by letting the American Consumer - The individual who is acutally working 8 hrs a day and makes a salary around the national average keep more of his money and " by American Consumer I do not mean American Businesses or citizens who make say more than 2x of national average". The mid-term solutions lie in executing national projects like upgrading National Infrastructure - Highway Systems, Air traffic Control Systems, Power Grids etc and The longer-term solutions lie investing into education, re-training, and providing funding future technologies - Energy Independence, Regulatory Frameworks, Tax-Code re-write etc.

Finally, we cannot ignore the psychology of markets, we have to recognize that as long as every one, which includes banks feel that there will be a better opportunity (option) in future they will stay out which will make things worse. John Maynard Keynes recognized this way back, so long as government in this case keeps the hope that more help is one the way to the banks, it will stall the recovery.

Thank you for reading. Your feedback is appreciated.

Thanks

Nagesh

The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.

Animal Spirits - What are they?

In my recent post on Hope, I made a suggestion to what "John Maynard Keynes" may have have meant by "Animal Spirits of Business People" when he first coined it way back.


Today, driving to work , I was listening to MarketPlace Morning Report on NPR. Guess what the subject was - A new book titled "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism" by Dr. George Akerlof and Dr. Robert Shiller.


The link to the report : http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/03/24/am_animal_spirits/


Though, I have not read the book, from what I heard on NPR today, I felt they were kind of saying the same thing I said in my blog and that is:-"Hope in GOOD TIMES combined with uncertainty and availability of good imagery that is easily accessible leads to “Irrational Exuberance” whereas in BAD TIMES the same hope, combined with uncertainty and availability of bad imagery that is easily accessible leads to “Irrational Pessimism” and staying on sidelines in the hope of an even better opportunity." So Government should respond differently based on the situation. In good times it should respond with more scrutiny and in bad times it should respond with real support. However the Authors contend though the government is on the right track, the real support offered so far (greater than 1 trillion) is not big enough.


My take: I concur with all of what was said by the authors on market place except on the comment that the real support was not big enough. I am not sure the current issue is the size of the real support, my gut tells me that it is ambiguity around the support that is causing the issue and may eventually render the size of the support smaller than needed. So for e.g yesterday when a plan was put forward on how to deal with Toxic Assets, it produced some certainity, thereby a positive response and Hope. Hence, In my opinion, What we need at this time is "CERTANITY" more than anything else. The certainity will then lead to real expectation of the need/support needed that can be offered by government/private or a combination of both.

Happy listening and reading.

Thanks
Nagesh
Note: The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.

Follow up to My Post "Wake Up - If you did not already know you should"

Recently, I had written blog post titled, "Wake up - If you did not already know you should". A key point in my view about expectation of "Credit Flowing" as soon as Banks had enough capital is that it is not a valid expectation as "Flow of credit should be tied to credit worthiness" and not somebody's ability to lend or that somebody feels he is entitled to credit.

"Part I: Geithner's Plan "Extremely Dangerous," Economist Galbraith Says" was the Tech Ticker interview with Prof. James Galbraith, The University of Texas at Austin on Yahoo! Finance today. I was surprised at how clearly he articulated that lending by banks will not resume unless the loans are provided to credit worthy purposes and that the American Consumer is saddled with debt and cannot take on any more debt.

Net-net, given what I heard and read today, my convictions around my post have become stronger. I strongly recommend every one reading this blog to listen to Prof. Galbraith interview and come to their own perceptions of the right medicine for the economic mess. I was humbled by some to the simple solutions suggested by him.

Happy reading and forming opinions

Thanks

Nagesh

The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.

IT Hardware (Servers, Mainframes, Storage) - who is the future buyer ?

HP bought EDS Last Year. CISCO has come out with clear intentions to be a datacenter player with their new server line. Yesterday's announcement of IBM's plan to acquire SUN raise a very fundamental question : WHO IS THE BUYER OF IT HARDWARE?


Historically, Software has been specifically designed for a particular OS/hardware platform. Has this paradigm finally shifted. Has software matured far enough that it is either truly synonymous or ubiquotous to underlying platform.?


Historically, Enterprises have always liked to own software and hardware. IT hardware and Software have always been treated as Assets of value. Has this paradigm finally shifted. Can Enterprises finally accept there is no true asset value beyond their use, hense can be procured as an operational commodity?


Historically, Enterprises believed software has to custom built or bought for specific/differentiating use. Has this paradigm finally shifted. Can Enterprises finally accept that software is just tooling, what they consume is services and processes that are either specific/differentiating to them?

If you have answered or even leaning towards answering "Yes" to the questions, then we both are on the same page? However we may not really really agree what it means to future of IT Services -

So here is My Take: If your business in not related to providing "Technology Services", the only hardware your business will procure will only be Edge or End-User Devices that lets your enterprise stay connected. The last to adopt would be the mega-enterprises, who will eventually adopt due to asymetric global demands and changing business objectives.

Thanks for reading. Let me know what your opinions are.

Nagesh

The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.

Professional Networking - The game has changed

Recently, I gave a talk on Career Management to TexasMBA students as a part of Executive Speaker Series at the McCombs School of Business, The University of Texas at Austin. My Presentation can be found at http://docs.google.com/Presentation?id=dppnrzq_64hrzwf7fh

This week, I noticed I crossed 200 connections on Linked-in (http://www.linkedin.com/). I started this journey accepting an invitation from Tiffany Glass (http://www.linkedin.com/profile?viewProfile=&key=516663&authToken=KiYZ&authType=name) around 2004 and have been pretty selective about who I network with. This to me is a major milestone.

This milestone, coupled with current economic climate and the recent levels of activity in networking events, it is pretty clear to me - The game as we know how to look for the next career challenge has totally changed. My Take:

1. If you are not change agent then you are being changed. So, ask yourself - are you changing or are you trying avoid it. No one else but you can answer the question for yourself.


2. Networking is not about joining Linked-in or any professional networking site, it is all about presence and having a networking strategy. Ask the hard questions : Who is in your network and How do they fit in? When was the last time you actually had a meaningful conversation with some one on your network who is not a part of your daily work life or personal life?


3. Networking is not about quantity, it is about quality of your network. In a rush to network, do not try to grow/expand at the expense of quality. At the end of the day, Garbage in equates to Garbage out. So, if most of folks in your network are ones you have never spoken to in your life or have nothing in common or are just family and friends or are not aligned to your goals then question the value of your network or you may not achieve the benefits you were hoping for?
4. You need to spend time with it, just like you do with work, family and favorite past time. Professional networking should become a part of your life not just something you do because of a particular event or treat it as a one time event.

My Conclusion: Effective networking should result in you being Seeked not you Seeking Something, whether it is a Job or Assignment.

I want the thank Bill Fleming from McCombs Career Services for making me think about this subject and present to the students of 2010; Tiffany Glass, who introduced me to professional networking when the game was still changing; and folks in my Network, whose relationship I value.

Thanks

Nagesh

Note: The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.

Follow up to my earlier post on "Hope"

Three days ago, I published a blog entry "Hope - is it not a positive thing anymore?". Today, I was surprised to the "Image and Story" of Rikki on how she is overcame her "lay-off" on the front page of "USA Today". Follow the link to read further.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2009-03-12-economy-american-dream_N.htm

Though the overall news is not really good, the imagery of success and how Rikki did it; is inspiring and provides "Hope". This is was one the key points I was trying to make earlier my earlier post (http://kunamneni.blogspot.com/2009/03/all-my-life-i-have-associated-hope-to.html) and glad to see it starting to happen.

Thanks
Nagesh

Note: The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.

Hope - Is it not a positive thing anymore?

All my life I have associated "Hope" to be a word that inspires positive thinking and feelings. Of-late I have started questioning it. Especially, when I listen to experts providing opinions on Marketplace (NPR), Yahoo! Finance etc. related to business, technology, economy and our future and the outcomes these statements are leading to.

So today, I went to my favorite dictionary "Wikipedia" to check the definition of "Hope". Here it is (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hope):

"Hope is a belief in a positive outcome related to events and circumstances in one's life. Hope is the feeling that what is wanted can be had or that events will turn out for the best. [1] To hope is to wish for something with the expectation of the wish being fulfilled, a key condition in unrequited love. [2] Hopefulness is somewhat different from optimism in that hope is an emotional state, whereas optimism is a conclusion reached through a deliberate thought pattern that leads to a positive attitude."

I read this over 10 times, and there was nothing negative about it. So why is my brain questioning the positivity of "Hope"?
Let's dive further...
Let’s analyze couple of common statements made which in my opinion were related to raising “Hope”, see what they mean and my take on those

1. “We are probably nearing a bottom”: This is statement that is supposed “Signal” the pain is almost over, however given where we are, the interpretation is: More Uncertainty, Market will go lower before it gets better. If the goal of this statement to provide hope to those in sidelines to get back in or for those who are in to not get out. --> It fails to achieve both.
   My Take: The reason experts like to make this statement, is that it does not commit them to one way or the other and hence the statement has no value. What we do not need is more uncertainty. Good or Bad, We need certainty. Hats off to folks like Warren Buffet, who took a definitive position, hopefully more of these experts do take a position than causing more uncertainty – Hopefully they realize “definitive opinions” is what they are paid to provide. Just as much as they believe bank executives have not done their job in the past, I believe these experts are not doing it today and that their opinions are worthless and more importantly by adding uncertainty they are causing more damage to economy than what the bank executives caused .
2. “Job loss was dismal (651,000 - Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) but not as catastrophic as expected”: This statement is supposed to positive and provide hope that things look better than anticipated. However every imagery that surrounded the jobs reports was a Negative – A person with extra-ordinary needs loses a job, A factory shutting down, Companies Laying Off etc.
   My Take: This imagery destroys the positivity of any hope created by better than expected performance as our brain can easily remember and retrieve the image of person losing job or being laid off than the fact the numbers were better than expected. If the proven “Availability Heuristic” teaches us something, the imagery should have been of a person who actually found a job against all odds, inspiring us all to believe in Hope. Believe it or not, I was talking to colleague, whose son took up a sales job based where remuneration is 100% commission based. Hats off to him accept that job rather become 651,001. These are extra-ordinary circumstances we need stories which embody – “When the going gets tough, the tough get going”.

I am sure I can go-on with more examples but these two should provide view into my drift. So where did I Start “Hope – is it not a positive thing anymore?”

My Conclusion: There is nothing wrong with Hope. Hope is still all about “Positive Outcomes” and “Optimism”. However, In Hope in GOOD TIMES combined with uncertainty and availability of good imagery that is easily accessible lead to “Irrational Exuberance” whereas in BAD TIMES the same hope, combined with uncertainty and availability of bad imagery that is easily accessible leads to “Irrational Pessimism” and staying on sidelines in the hope of an even better opportunity. I guess this is what John Maynard Keynes referred to as “Animal Spirits” of Business People.

Thank you for taking the time to read.

Nagesh

Note: The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.

Wake Up - If you did not already know you should

What is at stake today is our ability to drive value in the long-run, and the long-run is not far away - It is here. Please watch and read the following blog posts

• “Did you know” by Karl Fisch, Scott McLeod, and Jeff Bronman. Watch it, you will be surprised. The link is http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY
• Macro-Economic Updates by Professor Brandl’s from McCombs School of Business at The University of Texas at Austin. The link is http://blogs.mccombs.utexas.edu/brandl/

If these posts are not providing a wake up call - I am not sure what will!

My View:

1. Stop talking about tax breaks (I am sure by now most people do not mind paying a little more for a greater good. At least, I am) and start trying to figure out how to invest into our Future (education being one of them) that will allow us and our kids (our future) to be competitive. So Rather than taking a stance of rejecting money due to political affiliations, figure out a way to invest that will produce long-term benefits.
2. Stop talking about bail-outs (they are necessary so lets get beyond that) and ordering banks to lend (there is no entitlement here, carelessness in lending is what got us here in the first place), so rather than having an entitlement behavior, lets provide a reason for institutions to lend; Announcing projects, is one way - which becomes the basis for credit worthiness and reason for someone to lend. If not, just lending will get us back to current situation faster than we can imagine. New business (Projects) will provide the “Hope” needed to move forward.
3. "Hope" does not emerge if the justification for every move is based on “Catastrophe Avoided”. This will only scare people further, So Let the next bail-out be framed in-terms of meeting Business needs (insurance/lending - what ever they may be) rather than another “Dooms Day” Avoided. That will help show “Light at the end of the Tunnel” rather the darkness everyone sees on every bail-out measure announced.
   

Thanks
Nagesh

The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.