Swine Flu - Is your Business at Risk?

Listening to Dr. Brandl today on Effect of swine flu on economy, I felt it is time for corporations to ask whether their Disaster Recovery plans truly consider all aspects Business Continuity i.e People, Processes and Technology.

My Take # This pandemic which now has spread from single nation (Mexico) to over 11 Nations in days if not hours should serve as a rude awakening to corporations to take a closer look at their Disaster Recovery and Business Continuity Plans, as today's businesses use Global Resources in a Globally Connected Economy and their current Disaster Recovery plans could primarily be based on specific what-if scenarios and do not necessarily consider a Globally Spreading Pandemic.

Thanks
Nagesh
The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.

Economic Crisis - Have we even defined the problem right?

Link to Previous Post: My Views on Business and Technology: Economic Crisis - Have we even defined the problem right?

Though after writing this article, I got a little lesson on commercial paper market drying up at the 4th McCombs Alumni Conference, it however did not convince me fully.

Today, as I read thru the articles on "Wells Fargo's" Windfall earnings, I felt these prove my belief on the topic of Credit Worthiness - Banks are lending and there is credit available for those who are credit worthy; however, I guess they are lending to who they deem are "Credit Worthy". So if anyone is not getting credit - may be like Mahatma Gandhi Said - It is time to look in the mirror.

Some Links
http://finance.yahoo.com/loans/article/106893/Wells-Cashes-in-on-Mortgage-Boom
http://tampabay.bizjournals.com/tampabay/stories/2009/04/06/daily56.html?ana=yfcpc


Thanks
Nagesh
The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.

Cloud Computing - What is so disruptive about it?

I have heard varied opinions about cloud computing - ranging from we already do it, it is nothing but more virtualization, it is the next buzz word for SOA, It is just IT Services branded and sold differently to it is very disruptive enterprise IT Providers.

I am not sure I agree in 100% to any of the above generalizations. So to put some perspective, I will try to shed perspectives on "Cloud Computing", the first one today being on "What is so disruptive about it?

The other day, I was reading a book on Innovation in which there was very simple example that caught my attention and felt it may provide some context to disruption. So here it is

Most of us in America subscribe to some form of Cable/Satellite TV, the basic service has 20-30 channels, and you pay more to get more channels or movie channels and finally you have options to order specific programs and watch. This is great and Is an accepted norm.

Now what if, You called the cable company and said "I like your cable service, however I watch it sporadically, some days I do and some days I don't, and more over I want the flexibility to pick and choose what I like to watch irrespective of your current packaging structure however I would like you "Mr. Cable Company" to figure out what I watched, how long i watched and send me the bill to only that and not what i am entitled to watch. i.e Change the NORM on the Cable Company.

How do you think your cable company will react and do you think your cable company can do it ?

To me this will be very disruptive current cable providers as they have optimized their business model to delivering packages based on market segmentation in the most optimized way and to change that would be re-think all business processes and supply chain components in totally different way.

My Take ==> So If we believe "Cloud Computing" is expected to deliver true automated processes that enable on-demand consumption based IT services and not manual configuration/fixed asset based IT services, it will be disruptive to every IT Services Department/Provider who have honed this business model over the last 10-20-30 years - whether it is internal Enterprise IT or an external IT Service Provider. It is fundamently changing the accepted "NORM" of delivering Enterprise IT Services.

Thanks for reading. Feel free to comment on this post.

Thanks
Nagesh
The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.

Do Enterprises need any Hardware other than EDGE/End User Devices?

Recently, I posted on article titled "IT Hardware - Who is the future buyer?",

Today, I ran into this announcement from VMWARE: VMware to Manage Virtual Machines from Mobile Phones.

Though this announcement is from a specific supplier of virutualization technology, I am pretty confident this is trend in the industry.

If you carefully read and analyze the under pinning of the message, which is :- "we can reliably manage Virtual Assets from Edge/ End User Devices and virtual assets can be consumed on demand" - then we will truly have commodotized the Physical Hardware by being able to seamlessly move our virtual assets at WILL to the best value provider of physical assets dynamically ==> My Take: This announcement substantiates my assertation in the previous post in the long run !

Thanks
Nagesh
The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.

Economic Crisis - Have we even defined the problem right?

My Basic Education was in Mechanical / Industrial Engineering with some focus in Operations Research. I still remember the first thing my Professor said way back. 95% of the solving the problem is about "Defining the problem right" remaining 5% is about "applying the right algorithm".

Off late, as I have been questioning whether we have even defined the problem right?

Looks like the root cause economic problem is defined as "Lack of Lending" or "Lack of Credit Flowing"?

So the solutions to the problem range from Re-capitalization to Closing Banks. The current govt solutions are trying to meet in the middle with plans like public-private partnership etc etc as noted in Prof. Brandl's Blog today - http://blogs.mccombs.utexas.edu/brandl/2009/03/25/geithner/

So I took the liberty to comment on the blog entry, the essence of which is as follows

1. If we truly believe there are good well run banks in the mix - then why are they not lending and why are we focussing on the so called large insolvent banks? With interest rates close to 0% the good ones should be able to borrow and lend infinetly? ( Net - Net - It should really not matter if the insolvent ones do not !)
2. Lend to whom ? The american consumer is so much in debt. When was the last time any bank lent to the person who has maxed out his borrowing capability or does not have a job? Would you, if you were running a bank lend to a consumer profile who is already saddled with debt he cannot pay?
3. Assuming, we are successful in re-capitalizing the banks. The banks will naturally try to find the most credit worthy and profitable consumer profile to lend to. Are we really sure that, THAT consumer profile is really the American Consumer ? If not, Question who this consumer is and will money start flowing to that consumer?

As I think thru this subject, I really, would like some economists to illustrate which credit worthy institution / individual is not able to borrow ? and if there is such an example, I would like to further understand why the so called well run banks are not lending to them ? That may shed light on what the real problem is?

So what is My Take: My Gut tells me that the real problem, America now faces is not availability of credit, it is credit worthiness of American Consumer. So the solutions should make American Consumer Strong and Credit Worthy Again.

In the short run this may be best acheived by letting the American Consumer - The individual who is acutally working 8 hrs a day and makes a salary around the national average keep more of his money and " by American Consumer I do not mean American Businesses or citizens who make say more than 2x of national average". The mid-term solutions lie in executing national projects like upgrading National Infrastructure - Highway Systems, Air traffic Control Systems, Power Grids etc and The longer-term solutions lie investing into education, re-training, and providing funding future technologies - Energy Independence, Regulatory Frameworks, Tax-Code re-write etc.

Finally, we cannot ignore the psychology of markets, we have to recognize that as long as every one, which includes banks feel that there will be a better opportunity (option) in future they will stay out which will make things worse. John Maynard Keynes recognized this way back, so long as government in this case keeps the hope that more help is one the way to the banks, it will stall the recovery.

Thank you for reading. Your feedback is appreciated.

Thanks

Nagesh

The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.

Animal Spirits - What are they?

In my recent post on Hope, I made a suggestion to what "John Maynard Keynes" may have have meant by "Animal Spirits of Business People" when he first coined it way back.


Today, driving to work , I was listening to MarketPlace Morning Report on NPR. Guess what the subject was - A new book titled "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism" by Dr. George Akerlof and Dr. Robert Shiller.


The link to the report : http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/03/24/am_animal_spirits/


Though, I have not read the book, from what I heard on NPR today, I felt they were kind of saying the same thing I said in my blog and that is:-"Hope in GOOD TIMES combined with uncertainty and availability of good imagery that is easily accessible leads to “Irrational Exuberance” whereas in BAD TIMES the same hope, combined with uncertainty and availability of bad imagery that is easily accessible leads to “Irrational Pessimism” and staying on sidelines in the hope of an even better opportunity." So Government should respond differently based on the situation. In good times it should respond with more scrutiny and in bad times it should respond with real support. However the Authors contend though the government is on the right track, the real support offered so far (greater than 1 trillion) is not big enough.


My take: I concur with all of what was said by the authors on market place except on the comment that the real support was not big enough. I am not sure the current issue is the size of the real support, my gut tells me that it is ambiguity around the support that is causing the issue and may eventually render the size of the support smaller than needed. So for e.g yesterday when a plan was put forward on how to deal with Toxic Assets, it produced some certainity, thereby a positive response and Hope. Hence, In my opinion, What we need at this time is "CERTANITY" more than anything else. The certainity will then lead to real expectation of the need/support needed that can be offered by government/private or a combination of both.

Happy listening and reading.

Thanks
Nagesh
Note: The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.

Follow up to My Post "Wake Up - If you did not already know you should"

Recently, I had written blog post titled, "Wake up - If you did not already know you should". A key point in my view about expectation of "Credit Flowing" as soon as Banks had enough capital is that it is not a valid expectation as "Flow of credit should be tied to credit worthiness" and not somebody's ability to lend or that somebody feels he is entitled to credit.

"Part I: Geithner's Plan "Extremely Dangerous," Economist Galbraith Says" was the Tech Ticker interview with Prof. James Galbraith, The University of Texas at Austin on Yahoo! Finance today. I was surprised at how clearly he articulated that lending by banks will not resume unless the loans are provided to credit worthy purposes and that the American Consumer is saddled with debt and cannot take on any more debt.

Net-net, given what I heard and read today, my convictions around my post have become stronger. I strongly recommend every one reading this blog to listen to Prof. Galbraith interview and come to their own perceptions of the right medicine for the economic mess. I was humbled by some to the simple solutions suggested by him.

Happy reading and forming opinions

Thanks

Nagesh

The views represented in this blog are my personal views and are not a reflection of or opinions of any of the institutions I am associated with or have worked for.